It’s not surprising that these two would be associated, much of what one would consider National Activism starts as Local Activism. There may be a logical causal link in that basic relationship, or simple interest in activism may lend to both being focussed on by groups. Activism in general for all groups, however does not seem to have great importance. rs=0.73 (95%CI 0.56 to 0.84) P<0.0001.

On the face of it, this one seems to make perfect sense. This only means that as one goes up the other does as well. And this is a rare instance where causality is obvious. You have to be a member to be an active member. There is not, however a direct one-to-one proportionality between membership and active membership. Further studies over time with a few groups, measuring the numbers of each could give more accurate data and a better idea of how many members it takes to get one active member. With the median percentage at 17-33%, on average one would expect to find between 3 and 6 new members before having one that was active in the group. rs = 0.60 (95%CI 0.30 to 0.79)

P=0.0005

This goes along with the correlation above. Overall membership tends

to go up faster than active membership does, resulting in the negative correlation.

As membership goes up, the percent of active members goes down more on associated phenomena below. rs= -0.76 (95%CI –0.88 to –0.55) p <0.0001

This was a thoroughly unexpected correlation, rs=0.49 (95%CI 0.12-0.74) p=0.0115 but once considered, along with other data leads to a fairly simple conclusion. As group membership increases, active membership increases as well. As group size increases, percentage of active membership seems to decrease.

One would expect to see an increase in overall membership as geographical area of coverage for a group increased (provided that there were sufficient advertising for the group). While it may be due to lack of sufficient advertising or other concerns, this isn’t borne out in the data here. I’ve puzzled this over and come up with a couple of possible explanations, which unfortunately, cannot be supported with the data here.

Groups that have larger numbers of total members tend to be centered in more metropolitan areas (and often a more limited geographical area of activity) with a more dense population base, while smaller groups tend to encompass more rural areas that are more sparsely inhabited. As group size increases, the percentage of active members seems to decrease. The converse is also true, smaller groups tend to have higher percentages of active members. These smaller groups, in more rural areas, tend to encompass a larger geographical area for activity. (See the charts on the next page for the breakdown by "Rural" and "Metropolitan").

Within the metropolitan areas, there are typically more activities with which to occupy ones time. This is likely the cause of the disparity between percentages of active members, but other factors may influence this as well. Groups in more metropolitan areas are more likely to be close to other competing groups. An individual may join more than one group, and then only be active in one (more likely if no membership fees are charged by either group). Conversely, in more rural areas, there are fewer activities (in the real back-waters there are exceedingly few recreational activities that don’t involve religious organizations), and individuals may be more likely to involve themselves in a group.

Also, a few of the groups responding to the survey are just starting in areas that have previously had no such activity. It may be that these newer groups are filling a growing need, and as they come up are experiencing an influx of disproportionately higher percentages of individuals who are interested in active participation. Had I included in the original survey a question regarding the age of individual groups, this theory could have been tested.

While these do not truly meet established ‘standards’ (correlation coefficient ‘rs’ >+0.40 or r<-0.40 in sociological statistics), values were approaching significance r>+0.30 p-value <0.10 (less than a 10% chance of correlation indicated by the data being a random occurrence.) and are at least worth consideration. Take these data as you will.

While not significant at the 95% level, does fit beneath the 90% mark. This in corroboration with the earlier association between membership fee and active membership in "Humanist" groups. rs= 0.33 (95%CI 0.04 to 0.62) p = 0.0816

Further research could support or demolish the idea, but it appears at least worth consideration that membership fees and higher numbers of active members could be related.

Having more that one meeting per month creates more opportunities for individuals to be active within a group. If your group has just one meeting per month, and that meeting is on the same day of the week, some individuals may not be able to attend. Anecdotally, I’ve seen a few groups that not only have gatherings on different days of the week, but in more than one local as well. rs=0.39 (95%CI 0.03 to 0.66) p = 0.0348

Also from earlier associations with "humanist" groups, who ranked highest in active membership and in rating educational activities as important to groups. Thinking about it, sponsoring educational activities for groups of non-believers seems quite reasonable. Now an association between two variable such as educational importance, and active memberships does not imply causality. On considering the two though, there are at least a couple of possible causal links. As groups grow, more people become active who are interested in promoting educational activities in their groups. Or possibly, groups sponsor educational opportunities that attract active members. Either way it seems to support the idea that many of us probably already had, that non-believers are interested in learning. Given that, and a little evidence (even if a little loose), might it not be worthwhile to cater to thirst for knowledge? rs=0.34 (95%CI 0.04 to 0.63) p =0.0767

Considering that groups tend to rank social activities higher than other group type activities, that education runs a close second, and that many educational situations can lend to social activity as well, this association isn’t that far out there. One might say that groups tend to be either Social/Educational or Local/National Activist oriented.

rs=0.33 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.56) p = 0.0202

With the overall high values ascribed by respondents to social activities, it makes sense that there could be a relationship between social focus and active membership. The association here is with percent of active members, and not just active members. The main factor that seems to decreases the percentage of active members, is more members joining a group and not taking part in activities. IF there is indeed an association/causal link between social activities and percentage of active members, then either one of these things must occur:

Focussing on social activities inhibits non-active members from joining,

As higher percentages of active members emerge, they stimulate the group focus on social activities.

Or, focussing on or providing social activities stimulates members to become active in the group.

rs=0.36 (95%CI-0.02 to0.65) p= 0.0613

While those groups that did not respond with "Web-site" as means of advertising seem to have marginally better membership than those that did report this form of advertising, "this does not compute".

"Web-site" was the most commonly listed form of advertisement, and unless such advertising actually drove potential members away, I cannot see how not using a web-site would be an advantage. Also, some groups that did not list a web-site for advertising sent a link to their site with the survey response. One possible cause for this disparity could be that some groups use a web-site as their main if not only source of advertisement. Take this as you will.

This may come as a shock to some, as many have stated that fliers are a "waste of time". Certainly, results may vary, and the efficacy of such advertising may depend upon the level of tolerance in your area. Fliers may take time to put up, but only a second to rip down. They are however, relatively inexpensive to create on a home computer, and relatively easy to distribute on bulletin boards in places like libraries, or college campuses.

Insufficient data for comparison.

Insufficient data for comparison.

Insufficient data for comparison

Now this is a form of advertising that is likely to be worth looking into. The median membership for groups that use this form of advertising is double that of those who don’t.

Groups reported a variety of ways that they have used print media for advertising. Be it in a free local entertainment guide, or a heavily circulated newspaper or magazine, this form of advertising will likely reach more people.

Most newspapers have a special section devoted to local activities/events/meetings and will print announcements for free.

There are also "Letters to the Editor" and "Opinion/Editorials" sections, that you might be able to get published in free of charge. Some groups run paid advertisements, and some get special placement in the religion pages as well.

And don’t forget, there are a few publications out there that focus on the non-believers. You might check those as well.

I had expected more personal forms of advertising such as this, where you get to meet and talk with people face to face to make a huge difference, however, I don’t see one.

It’s hard to see how word of mouth could be a bad form of advertising, but I guess it could depend on the mouth that’s delivering the words. This (as with Web-sites) may be to some groups a primary form of advertisement. One problem that I see with this form, is, unless you stand on a street corner, or go out trolling for non-believers, the effectiveness of "word of mouth" advertising it could be rather limited in scope.

Insufficient data for comparison.

As previously covered in this report, there does seem to be an association between smaller groups in more rural settings, and higher percentages of active members. Smaller groups might not have the funds available for paid web hosting, however (despite some annoyances) there are a few free hosting sites out there. ‘nuff said

I had expected the percentage of active members in this category to be higher, more in line with the smaller rural group phenomenon earlier described. Though the upper level of CI is higher for flier users, there is almost imperceptible difference in median scores.

Insufficient data for comparison.

Insufficient data for comparison.

Insufficient data for comparison.

Insufficient data for comparison.

No significant differences noted here.

I was curious to see if there was any relationship between the use of public activities for advertising (such as booths at fairs, or street festivals, parades, or volunteer opportunities). Those that do advertise themselves in such ways do seem to rate Local Activism just a bit above the averages, and above those groups that don’t use such publicly active advertising methods.